Business case
What the first loop could be worth over 90 days, with the assumptions producing that number and those still to confirm.
In one read
Read before the numbers
These scenarios are neither a forecast nor a guarantee of revenue, meetings or ROI. They exist to check whether the assumptions are solid enough to consider a Build.
What we know
Observed in your sources during the engagement.
- Both sources contain the elements the loop needs.
- Comparable projects are retrievable once the link is rebuilt.
- Evidence can be attached to its source document.
- An owner exists for every opportunity in the CRM.
What remains hypothetical
Estimated, never measured. None of these figures is a result.
- The time actually spent today recovering context.
- The volume of opportunities concerned over 90 days.
- The average deal value and the contribution margin.
- The share of additional wins better preparation would enable.
What must be measured before building
Without these measurements, no gain can be demonstrated later.
- Real search time, timed across ten opportunities.
- Volume of relevant opportunities over one observed quarter.
- Internal loaded cost, confirmed by finance.
- Adoption and validation rate within the sales team.
Three scenarios
Conservative, central, ambitious
The three bounds of the reasoning. The central scenario is the one used for the arbitration.
Capacity and commercial do not simply add up
Capacity value is time freed; commercial value is a hypothetical margin. Adding them gives an order of magnitude, not a result. Counting the same gain twice — once as time, once as margin — would be the easiest mistake to make here.
Threshold
What the Build threshold actually says
Build threshold: €42,000 over 90 days
The central scenario clears the threshold only narrowly. That margin is too thin to skip measuring real search time.
The prudent scenario does not clear the threshold. If the real measurement lands near it, the recommendation becomes “Fix first”.
The ambitious scenario does not justify a Build on its own: it is an upper bound, not an argument.
The 3× rule applies to the decision to put a loop into Build. It does not apply to the Pilot.
€43,980 against €42,000 — 5% of margin above the threshold.
Decision thresholds
- Build investment (90 days)
- €14,000
- Indicative 3× threshold — Build
- €42,000
The 3× threshold is a decision marker, not a promise of return. It exists to rule out loops whose value would not cover the investment with enough margin.
The 3× rule applies to the decision to put a loop into Build. It does not apply to the Pilot.
The Pilot is not automatically assessed in this Diagnostic. It can be considered once a Build has been used and a first recurring value has been measured.
Assumptions
What these amounts rest on
Every assumption carries its source, its evidence level, its confidence and the person who will have to confirm it.
| Assumption | Value | Status | Source | Confidence | Owner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relevant opportunities over 90 daysHYP-BC-01 | 24 | Illustrative | Extrapolated from the 48 CRM opportunities over 12 months | Medium | Sales management | |
| Current search time per opportunityHYP-BC-02 | 3.5 hours | To confirm | Sales lead interview — never measured | Low | Sales lead | |
| Internal loaded costHYP-BC-03 | €95/hour | To confirm | Sector order of magnitude — to be replaced by Norevia's own figure | Low | Finance | |
| Average deal valueHYP-BC-04 | €100,000 | To confirm | Midpoint of the €20,000 — €250,000 range | Low | Sales management | |
| Contribution marginHYP-BC-05 | 30% | To confirm | Working assumption — not disclosed at this stage | Low | Finance | |
| Additional win rate — conservativeHYP-BC-06 | 2% | Scenario | Lower bound used for the conservative scenario | Low | NateSystem | |
| Additional win rate — centralHYP-BC-07 | 5% | Scenario | Central assumption used for the arbitration | Low | NateSystem | |
| Additional win rate — ambitiousHYP-BC-08 | 8% | Scenario | Upper bound, not predictive | Low | NateSystem |
Every assumption and every calculation carries an identifier, reproduced verbatim in the export.
Formulas
Attribution limits
- A deal is never won by the system alone: offer, price, relationship and timing matter more.
- Time freed is only a gain if it is reallocated to something else.
- None of these amounts constitutes a commitment to a result.
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